Department of Economics
Yuriy Gorodnichenko is associate professor in the Economics department at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, Massachusetts); and Research Fellow at the Institute of the Study of Labor (IZA). Professor Gorodnichenko is Associate Editor of the Journal of the European Economic Association, and Visiting Scholar at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. His areas of research interest include monetary economics; aggregate implications of informal frictions; business cycles; development, productivity and income differences; and, inequality.
Summary of recent papers:
Coauthors: Olivier Coibion (UT Austin), Lorenz Kueng (Northwestern U), John Silvia (Wells Fargo)
Citation: Journal of Monetary Economics (2017) 88, 70-88.
This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on—and their historical contribution to—consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980 as measured by the Consumer Expenditures Survey. Contractionary monetary policy systematically increases inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary policy shocks account for a non-trivial component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, the paper documents some of the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
Coauthors: Olivier Coibion (UT Austin), Rupal Kamdar (UC Berkeley)
Date: February 25, 2017
Citation: accepted in Journal of Economic Literature
This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical micro-evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations.