Responsible Sourcing? Theory and Evidence from Costa Rica

Responsible Sourcing? Theory and Evidence from Costa Rica

by Alonso Alfaro-Ureña, Benjamin Faber, Cecile Gaubert, Isabela Manelici, Jose P. Vasquez||

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) increasingly impose “Responsible Sourcing” (RS) standards on their suppliers worldwide, including requirements on worker compensation, benefits and working conditions. Are these policies just “hot air” or do they impact exposed suppliers and their workers? What is the welfare incidence of RS in sourcing countries? To answer these questions, the authors developed a quantitative general equilibrium (GE) model of RS and combine it with a unique new database. In the theory, they show that the welfare implications of RS are ambiguous, depending on an interplay between what is akin to an export tax (+) and a labor market distortion (−). Empirically,they combine the near-universe of RS rollouts by MNE subsidiaries in Costa Rica since 2009 with firm-to-firm transactions and matched employeremployee microdata. They find that RS rollouts lead to significant reductions in firm sales and employment at exposed suppliers, an increase in their salaries to initially low-wage workers and a reduction in their low-wage employment share. We then use the estimated effects and the microdata to calibrate the model and quantify GE counterfactuals. They find that while MNE RS policies have led to significant gains among the roughly one third of low-wage workers employed at exposed suppliers ex ante, the majority of low-wage workers lose due to adverse indirect effects on their wages and the domestic price index.

Costa Rican sourcing

Stablecoin Devaluation Risk

Stablecoin Devaluation Risk

by Barry Eichengreen, My T. Nguyen, Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

Stablecoins’ reliance on centralized custodians introduces devaluation risk similar to that of traditional currencies under fixed exchange rate regimes. The authoers construct market-based measures of stablecoin devaluation risk using spot and futures prices for Tether, estimating an average devaluation probability of 60 basis points annually and peaking at over 200 basis points during the 2022 Terra-Luna crash. Key risk factors include market volatility and transaction velocity, with elevated interest rates indicating devaluation risk. Deviations from covered interest rate parity point to segmentation between traditional and stablecoin markets, driven by leverage trading and arbitrage costs. Our findings suggest the need for increased transparency and regulatory oversight to mitigate stablecoin risk.

Stablecoin