FEBRUARY 13-14, 2020






UC Berkeley’s Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and the Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold the Conference on Macroeconomic Implications of Trade Policies and Trade Shocks at the University of California, Berkeley, on February 13-14, 2020.

This conference aims to update the analytical framework for analyzing trade policies and trade shocks to encompass modern developments in macro modeling and in trade theory. The goal is to encourage research incorporating the most recent advances in both the trade and macro literatures and allow economists to provide quantitative answers to questions about the short- and long-run impacts of trade policies and shocks on the trade balance, employment, real wages, income distribution, growth, and welfare.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions. The Institute is committed to rigorous, intellectually open, and in depth study and discussion. It attempts to anticipate emerging issues and present ideas in useful, accessible formats, to inform and shape public debate. Its audience includes government officials and legislators, business and labor leaders, management and staff at international organizations, university-based scholars and their students, experts at other research institutions and nongovernmental organizations, the media, and the public at large.

Please visit our website for information about our senior fellows, their current research, and our outreach programs.

List of participants can be found here.


Thursday, February 13

8:30am-9:00am Registration & Breakfast
9:00am-9:15am Welcome Remarks
Ann Harrison, Dean, Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
9:15am-10:15am “The Impact of the 2018-19 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare”
Stephen Redding (Princeton University)Click here for Slides
10:15am-10:45am Break
10:45am-11:45am Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?
Presenter: Andrea Raffo (Federal Reserve Board)
Click here for Slides
Discussant: Jan Groen (Federal Reserve Bank, New York)
Click here for Slides 

Authors: Dario Caldara (Federal Reserve Board), Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board), Patrick Molligo (Federal Reserve Board), Andrea Prestipino (Federal Reserve Board), Andrea Raffo (Federal Reserve Board)


11:45am-12:45pm The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms
Presenter: Scarlet Chen (Stanford University)
Click here for Slides
Discussant: Thomas Drechsel (University of Maryland)
Click here for SlidesAuthors: Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University), Philip Bunn (Bank of England), Scarlet Chen (Stanford University), Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham), Pawel Smietanka (Bank of England), Gregory Thwaites (London School of Economics)
12:45pm-2:00pm Lunch
2:00pm-3:00pm Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation

Presenter: Fadi Hassan (Bank of Italy)
Click here for Slides
Discussant: Katheryn Russ (University of California, Davis)
Click here for Slides

Authors: Fadi Hassan (Bank of Italy), Veronica Rappoport (London School of Economics), Stefano Federico (Bank of Italy)

3:00pm-3:30pm Break
3:30pm-4:30pm Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium

Presenter: Marika Santoro (International Monetary Fund)
Click here for Slides
Discussant: Sherman Robinson (Peterson Institute)
Click here for Slides

Authors: Benjamin Hunt (International Monetary Fund), Rafael Portillo (International Monetary Fund), Susanna Mursula (International Monetary Fund), Marika Santoro (International Monetary Fund)

4:30pm-5:30pm Practitioners Panel:

Torsten Slok (Deutsche Bank)
Click here for Slides
Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University)
Robert Koopman (World Trade Organization)
Beth Anne Wilson (Federal Reserve Board)
6:00pm Conference Dinner,  Great Hall, Bancroft Hotel
2680 Bancroft Way, Berkeley, CA 94704

Friday, February 14

9:00am-9:30am Breakfast
9:30am-10:30am Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment

Presenter: Sharon Traiberman (New York University)
Discussant: Oleg Itskhoki (Princeton University)

Authors: Rafael Dix-Carneiro (Duke University), João Paulo Pessoa (Sao Paulo School of Economics), Ricardo Reyes-Heroles (Federal Reserve Bank), Sharon Traiberman (New York University)

10:30am-11:00am Break
11:00am-12:00pm A Global View of Creative Destruction

Presenter: Ishan Nath (University of Chicago)
Discussant: Ariel Burstein (University of California, Los Angeles)

Authors: Chang-Tai Hsieh (University of Chicago), Peter J. Klenow (Stanford University), Ishan Nath (University of Chicago)

12:00pm-1:30pm Lunch
1:30pm-2:30pm “Tariffs and the Current Account Deficit”

Author: Guido Lorenzoni (Northwestern University)
Discussant: Ina Simonovska (University of California, Davis)
2:30pm-3:30pm Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks

Presenter: Banu Demir (Bilkent University)
Discussant: Federico Huneeus (Yale University)

Authors: Beata Javorcik (University of Oxford), Banu Demir (Bilkent University), Thomasz K. Michalski (HEC Paris), Evren Ors (HEC Paris)

3:30pm-4:00pm Break
4:00pm-5:00pm Conference Overview Panel:

Olivier Blanchard (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley)


All sessions will be held at:

Chou Hall
Spieker Forum (6th Floor)
Cheit Ln, Berkeley, CA 94720

Parking and Transportation

Parking Passes for participants can be reserved in advance. Contact to request a permit.

Visitor Parking Map


The  Hotel Shattuck Plaza is located 1/2 block from the metro BART train (downtown Berkeley station), which is usually the fastest and most convenient transport option from the Oakland and SFO airports.

For additional transportation options, please visit or


Hotel Shattuck Plaza, Berkeley, CA

Accommodation will be provided for out-of-town attendees. Please indicate if lodging is desired when completing your registration form and a reservation will be made on your behalf. We strongly recommend that attendees register as soon as possible.

Hotel confirmations will be sent out by January 31, 2020.





Marcus Noland,
Executive Vice President and Director of Studies, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Maurice Obstfeld,
Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

Andrés Rodríguez-Clare,
Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

For questions regarding logistics, please contact

Globalization and Nationalism: Retrospect and Prospect

Globalization and Nationalism: Retrospect and Prospect

From Professor Maurice Obstfeld’s Keynote speech at the Italian Economic Association Annual Meeting, Palermo, Italy, October 24, 2019:

“The bi-directional connections between nationalism and globalization – with globalization arguably spurring a nationalistic domestic politics and nationalism threatening policy shifts that compromise global economic integration – justify a focus on economic nationalism (de Bolle and Zettelmeyer 2019). In principle, economic policies aiming to further purely domestic objectives can be perfectly consistent with a high degree of global economic integration and cooperation. Thus, my key questions today will concern why this “divine coincidence” seems often difficult to achieve in practice, and why, when difficulties arise, global integration can be an early victim. While my goal is to get beyond quotidian observations about the “winners and losers from trade,” however essential these are as a starting point, you will see that my reflections add up to much less than a full and rigorous account. Still, it seems useful at least to put the current disruptions in their historical context – one objective being to illustrate the continuity with past developments and thereby offer hope that public action has some scope to address the current malaise.”

Read the full address on Professor Obstfeld’s website HERE.

Globalization Cycles

Globalization Cycles

Clausen Faculty Professor Maurice Obstfeld writes in his upcoming article in the Italian Journal of Economics, 2020:

“While the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 was not a catastrophe on the order of World War I, there is a broad similarity in the sequelae to both of these events – a failed attempt to return to pre-trauma normalcy, followed by a process of international economic disintegration in the face of changed geopolitical realities. This similarity is history rhyming rather than repeating (in the phrase commonly attributed to Mark Twain), but it does raise three questions about possible cycles in globalization (also a theme of O’Rourke 2018):

  •  Does globalization inherently foster dynamics that eventually lead to political backlash?
  • If so, are these dynamics inevitable, or can complementary economic policies nurture a stable globalization?
  • And finally, since policies are endogenous, when are domestic policies that complement and support globalization likely to arise?

Obviously, these are very difficult questions to answer – all I will do here is offer some observations and guesses. Answers that are more complete would have to rely on rigorous and systematic analysis based on insights from a range of social sciences, not just economics.”

Access the full article on Prof. Obstfeld’s website HERE.