Sponsored by the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy at Berkeley and the Peterson Institute for International Economics University of California, Berkeley, February 13-14, 2020
Call for Papers
The last two decades of rapidly shifting comparative advantage have been associated with economic and social dislocations and trade policy tensions. Those factors played a central role in the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, who followed through on threats of aggressive trade actions against America’s trade partners. Because both major U.S. political parties now embrace trade skepticism, more belligerent international trade policies and the accompanying trade disputes are likely to remain a feature of the global scene even under future presidents.
Much of the trade-skeptic agenda comes from a desire to shift macroeconomic outcomes – whether labor-market outcomes, trade deficits, or overall economic growth. It is therefore critical for policymakers to have a firm grasp on the macro implications of trade policies. The academic literature on that subject has lagged behind modern modeling advances in other areas of economics, perhaps because those advances occurred in a period when a rules-based international trading system largely kept trade hostilities in check. Policymakers intervening to offset supposed effects of trade would also benefit from a better understanding of how the forces of globalization (as opposed to other economic trends) have shaped economic outcomes.
This conference aims to update the analytical framework for analyzing trade policies and trade shocks to encompass modern developments in macro modeling and in trade theory. The goal is to encourage people to write papers that are compatible with the basic requirements in both the trade and macro literatures and allow economists to provide quantitative answers to questions about the short- and long-run impacts of trade policies and shocks on the trade balance, employment, real wages, income distribution, growth, and welfare.
To that end, we welcome submissions across a range of topics that include but are not restricted to theoretical and empirical studies on:
The effects of trade shocks on
labor-market dynamics
income distribution
external imbalances and growth
exchange rates
direct investment flows and production location
The rising importance and implications of global value chains.
The appropriate macro policies to deal with trade shocks.
The links between trade deficits and labor market outcomes.
The role of bilateral imbalances and the economic costs of trade diversion in response to tariffs.
The dynamics of trade warfare.
The possible emergence of regional trading blocs.
Macro impacts of quotas and other quantitative trade restrictions.
Impact and longer-run effects of Brexit.
Trade and investment effects of potential tax reforms.
The linkages between global trade volume and global growth.
The effects of trade policy uncertainty
Papers that integrate some aspect of trade in a macro framework will have priority. Proposals should be no more than 300 words in length and should give a clear account of the question(s) to be addressed and the analytical and/or empirical methodology, although they may be accompanied by draft papers.
UC Berkeley’s Clausen Center for International Business and Policy will hold its 3rd biennial Conference on Global Economic Issues on Saturday, November 16, 2019.
As in previous years, this invitation-only event will host prominent economists, policymakers, and industry participants. Confirmed participants include Mary Daly, President, SF Federal Reserve; Michael Hasenstab, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer for Templeton Global Macro; Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Indeed; and Emi Nakamura, Jon Steinsson, and Maurice Obstfeld all from University of California, Berkeley.
This year we welcome Dr. Gita Gopinath, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research to give the keynote address.
We hope you can join us for what promises to be a lively and stimulating event. Please check back for additional program details.
Program
9:00am-9:30am
Registration & Breakfast
9:30am-9:45am
Opening Remarks Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director
9:45am-11:00am
Session 1 – Emerging Markets
Moderator: TBD
Panelists: Veronica Rappoport, Vice President, Banco Central de la Republica Argentina Michael Hasenstab, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Templeton Global Macro Alan Taylor, University of California, Davis
11:00am-11:15am
Break
11:15am-12:30pm
Session 2 – China Trade
Moderator: TBD
Panelists: Mary Daly, President, Federal Reserve Bank, San Francisco Emi Nakamura, Professor, University of California, Berkeley Jed Kolko, Chief Economist, Indeed
12:30pm-2:00pm
Lunch
2:00pm-3:15pm
Session 3 – Macro Implications of Structural Change in the Labor Market
Moderator: TBD
Panelists: Jeff Shen, Managing Director, BlackRock Maurice Obstfeld, Professor, University of California, Berkeley Chang-Tai Hsieh, Chicago Booth
3:15pm-3:30pm
Break
3:30pm-5:00pm
Egon & Joan von Kaschnitz Lecture
Keynote: Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, International Monetary Fund
5:00pm-6:00pm
Closing Reception
Venue
All sessions and conference reception will be held at:
Accommodation will be provided for out-of-town attendees. Please indicate if lodging is desired when completing your registration form and a reservation will be made on your behalf. We strongly recommend that attendees register by October 16, 2019.
Transportation to and from conference venue will be provided.
NOTE: Berkeley lodging also available upon request.
UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business holds its annual Future of Social Ventures Conference, bringing together members of the social impact community to advance practice, learning, and acceleration for social ventures. This year’s conference celebrates the 20th Anniversary of the Global Social Venture Competition and the theme of Technology for Good.
The Berkeley-Haas Africa Business Club held its 5th Annual Africa Business Forum to explore and discuss how to position Africa’s challenges as opportunities with other visionaries, thought leaders and home-grown innovation enablers.
The Institute for South Asia Studies is hosting a lecture, On “Evidence-based Economic Policy” in Pakistan on Friday, March 8, 2019, by Atif Mian, Professor, Economics, Public Policy and Finance (Princeton University) and Co-Founder & Board Member, Center for Economic Research in Pakistan (CERP); Asim I. Khwaja, Professor, International Finance and Development (Harvard University) and Co-Founder & Board Member, Center for Economic Research in Pakistan (CERP); Maroof A. Syed, President & CEO, Center for Economic Research in Pakistan (CERP) and Director of Pakistan Strategy & Development, Evidence for Policy Design (EPOD-Harvard); Saad Gulzaar, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Stanford University. The event will be moderated by Munis Faruqui, Chair, Institute for South Asia Studies, Associate Professor of South and Southeast Asian Studies. The Clausen Center is co-sponsoring this event.
Around the world, governments have delegated political independence to central banks that wield tremendous power based on the belief that independence would allow these institutions to keep inflation in check. From the mid-1990s, Japan’s economy charted a unique trajectory: it fell into deflation and never fully emerged from it for nearly the next twenty years. Only with the election of Prime Minister Shinzō Abe at the end of 2012 and his appointment in early 2013 of new leadership at Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), did Japan finally launch a policy course capable of pulling Japan fully out of deflation. This presentation explains the shift in BOJ policy and factors behind it.
Gene Park, Associate Professor, Loyola Marymount University
.gif)
All sessions and conference reception will be held at:
Accommodation will be provided for out-of-town attendees. Please indicate if lodging is desired when completing your registration form and a reservation will be made on your behalf. We strongly recommend that attendees register by October 16, 2019.
