Clausen Center faculty Benjamin Faber and Cecile Gaubert have been selected as 2020 Sloan Research Fellows in economics. Awarded annually since 1955, the fellowships honor scholars in the U.S. and Canada whose creativity, leadership, and independent research achievements make them some of the most promising researchers working today. You can learn more about the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the fellowships on their website.
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UC Berkeley’s Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and the Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold the Conference on Macroeconomic Implications of Trade Policies and Trade Shocks at the University of California, Berkeley, on February 13-14, 2020.
This conference aims to update the analytical framework for analyzing trade policies and trade shocks to encompass modern developments in macro modeling and in trade theory. The goal is to encourage research incorporating the most recent advances in both the trade and macro literatures and allow economists to provide quantitative answers to questions about the short- and long-run impacts of trade policies and shocks on the trade balance, employment, real wages, income distribution, growth, and welfare.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions. The Institute is committed to rigorous, intellectually open, and in depth study and discussion. It attempts to anticipate emerging issues and present ideas in useful, accessible formats, to inform and shape public debate. Its audience includes government officials and legislators, business and labor leaders, management and staff at international organizations, university-based scholars and their students, experts at other research institutions and nongovernmental organizations, the media, and the public at large.
Please visit our website for information about our senior fellows, their current research, and our outreach programs.
List of participants can be found here.
| 8:30am-9:00am | Registration & Breakfast |
| 9:00am-9:15am | Welcome Remarks Ann Harrison, Dean, Haas School of Business University of California, Berkeley |
| 9:15am-10:15am | “The Impact of the 2018-19 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare” Stephen Redding (Princeton University) |
| 10:15am-10:45am | Break |
| 10:45am-11:45am | “Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?” Presenter: Andrea Raffo (Federal Reserve Board) Authors: Dario Caldara (Federal Reserve Board), Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board), Patrick Molligo (Federal Reserve Board), Andrea Prestipino (Federal Reserve Board), Andrea Raffo (Federal Reserve Board)
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| 11:45am-12:45pm | “The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms” Presenter: Scarlet Chen (Stanford University) Authors: Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University), Philip Bunn (Bank of England), Scarlet Chen (Stanford University), Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham), Pawel Smietanka (Bank of England), Gregory Thwaites (London School of Economics) |
| 12:45pm-2:00pm | Lunch |
| 2:00pm-3:00pm | “Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation“
Presenter: Fadi Hassan (Bank of Italy) Authors: Fadi Hassan (Bank of Italy), Veronica Rappoport (London School of Economics), Stefano Federico (Bank of Italy) |
| 3:00pm-3:30pm | Break |
| 3:30pm-4:30pm | “Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium“
Presenter: Marika Santoro (International Monetary Fund) Authors: Benjamin Hunt (International Monetary Fund), Rafael Portillo (International Monetary Fund), Susanna Mursula (International Monetary Fund), Marika Santoro (International Monetary Fund) |
| 4:30pm-5:30pm | Practitioners Panel: Speakers: Torsten Slok (Deutsche Bank) Click here for Slides Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University) Robert Koopman (World Trade Organization) Beth Anne Wilson (Federal Reserve Board) |
| 6:00pm | Conference Dinner, Great Hall, Bancroft Hotel 2680 Bancroft Way, Berkeley, CA 94704 |
| 9:00am-9:30am | Breakfast |
| 9:30am-10:30am | “Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment”
Presenter: Sharon Traiberman (New York University) Authors: Rafael Dix-Carneiro (Duke University), João Paulo Pessoa (Sao Paulo School of Economics), Ricardo Reyes-Heroles (Federal Reserve Bank), Sharon Traiberman (New York University) |
| 10:30am-11:00am | Break |
| 11:00am-12:00pm | “A Global View of Creative Destruction”
Presenter: Ishan Nath (University of Chicago) Authors: Chang-Tai Hsieh (University of Chicago), Peter J. Klenow (Stanford University), Ishan Nath (University of Chicago) |
| 12:00pm-1:30pm | Lunch |
| 1:30pm-2:30pm | “Tariffs and the Current Account Deficit” Author: Guido Lorenzoni (Northwestern University) Discussant: Ina Simonovska (University of California, Davis) |
| 2:30pm-3:30pm | “Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks”
Presenter: Banu Demir (Bilkent University) Authors: Beata Javorcik (University of Oxford), Banu Demir (Bilkent University), Thomasz K. Michalski (HEC Paris), Evren Ors (HEC Paris) |
| 3:30pm-4:00pm | Break |
| 4:00pm-5:00pm | Conference Overview Panel: Speakers: Olivier Blanchard (Peterson Institute for International Economics) Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics) Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley) |
All sessions will be held at:
Chou Hall
Spieker Forum (6th Floor)
Cheit Ln, Berkeley, CA 94720
Parking
Parking Passes for participants can be reserved in advance. Contact econevents@berkeley.edu to request a permit.
Transportation
The Hotel Shattuck Plaza is located 1/2 block from the metro BART train (downtown Berkeley station), which is usually the fastest and most convenient transport option from the Oakland and SFO airports.
For additional transportation options, please visit Bart.gov or 511.org
Hotel Shattuck Plaza, Berkeley, CA
Accommodation will be provided for out-of-town attendees. Please indicate if lodging is desired when completing your registration form and a reservation will be made on your behalf. We strongly recommend that attendees register as soon as possible.
Hotel confirmations will be sent out by January 31, 2020.
Marcus Noland, mnoland@piie.com
Executive Vice President and Director of Studies, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Maurice Obstfeld, obstfeld@berkeley.edu; mobstfeld@piie.com
Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley
Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, arc@berkeley.edu
Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley
For questions regarding logistics, please contact econevent@berkeley.edu
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UC Berkeley’s Clausen Center for International Business and Policy will hold its 3rd biennial Conference on Global Economic Issues on Saturday, November 16, 2019.
As in previous years, this invitation-only event will host prominent economists, policymakers, and industry participants. Some of our confirmed participants include Mary Daly, President, SF Federal Reserve; Calvin Ho, Senior Vice President and Director of Research for Templeton Global Macro; Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Indeed; and Emi Nakamura, Andres Rodriguez-Clare, and Maurice Obstfeld all from University of California, Berkeley.
This year we welcome Dr. Gita Gopinath, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research to give the keynote address.
We hope you can join us for what promises to be a lively and stimulating event.
>> Click here to view Clausen Conference 2019 Participant List
| 9:00am-9:30am | Registration & Breakfast |
| 9:30am-9:45am | Opening Remarks Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director, Clausen Center, University of California, Berkeley Kim Voss, Acting Dean, Division of Social Sciences, University of California, Berkeley |
| 9:45am-11:00am | Session 1 – Rising Challenges for Emerging Markets Chair: Carlos Carvalho, Former Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, Central Bank of Brazil Panelists: Alan Taylor, Professor, University of California, Davis Veronica Rappoport, Vice President, Central Bank of Argentina Calvin Ho, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Templeton Global Macro >> Click here for Session 1 Slides |
| 11:00am-11:15am | Break |
| 11:15am-12:30pm | Session 2 – China Chair: Galina Hale, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Panelists: Chang-Tai Hsieh, Professor, University of Chicago Maurice Obstfeld, Professor, University of California, Berkeley Jeff Shen, Managing Director, BlackRock >> Click here for Session 2 Slides |
| 12:30pm-2:00pm | Lunch |
| 2:00pm-3:15pm | Session 3 – Macro Implications of Structural Change in the Labor Market Chair: Andres Rodriguez-Clare, University of California, Berkeley Panelists: Emi Nakamura, Professor, University of California, Berkeley Mary Daly, President, Federal Reserve Bank, San Francisco Jed Kolko, Chief Economist, Indeed >> Click here for Session 3 Slides |
| 3:15pm-3:45pm | Break |
| 3:45pm-4:45pm | Egon & Joan von Kaschnitz Lecture Keynote: Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, International Monetary Fund “A Case for an Intergrated Policy Framework“ |
| 4:45pm-5:00pm | Closing remarks |
| 5:00pm-6:00pm | Reception |
All sessions and conference reception will be held at:
David Brower Center
2150 Allston Way, Berkeley, CA 94704
Parking
Parking Passes for participants can be reserved in advance. Contact econevents@berkeley.edu to request a permit.
Transportation
For additional transportation options, please visit Bart.gov or 511.org
Hyatt Regency, 5 Embarcadero Center, San Francisco
Accommodation will be provided for out-of-town attendees. Please indicate if lodging is desired when completing your registration form and a reservation will be made on your behalf. We strongly recommend that attendees register by October 16, 2019.
Hotel confirmations will be sent out by November 1, 2019.
For guests staying at the SF Hyatt, transportation to and from conference venue will be provided.
NOTE: Berkeley lodging also available upon request.
For questions or comments please contact:
Clausen Event Staff, econevent@berkeley.edu
Event Planner
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, pog@berkeley.edu
Director, Clausen Center for International Business and Policy
Please join UC Berkeley’s Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and the European Union Center for a conversation with José Manuel Barroso, former president of the European Commission and former prime minister of Portugal. He also received a Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the European Union in 2012. Barroso will discuss economic and political changes and challenges facing Europe.
Barroso will be joined on stage by Economics Professor Maurice Obstfeld and Institute of European Studies Director Jeroen Dewulf. Questions from the audience will be collected and asked as time permits.
This event is open to the public.
Banatao Auditorium
310 Sutardja Dai Hall
University of California, Berkeley
The last two decades of rapidly shifting comparative advantage have been associated with economic and social dislocations and trade policy tensions. Those factors played a central role in the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, who followed through on threats of aggressive trade actions against America’s trade partners. Because both major U.S. political parties now embrace trade skepticism, more belligerent international trade policies and the accompanying trade disputes are likely to remain a feature of the global scene even under future presidents.
Much of the trade-skeptic agenda comes from a desire to shift macroeconomic outcomes – whether labor-market outcomes, trade deficits, or overall economic growth. It is therefore critical for policymakers to have a firm grasp on the macro implications of trade policies. The academic literature on that subject has lagged behind modern modeling advances in other areas of economics, perhaps because those advances occurred in a period when a rules-based international trading system largely kept trade hostilities in check. Policymakers intervening to offset supposed effects of trade would also benefit from a better understanding of how the forces of globalization (as opposed to other economic trends) have shaped economic outcomes.
This conference aims to update the analytical framework for analyzing trade policies and trade shocks to encompass modern developments in macro modeling and in trade theory. The goal is to encourage people to write papers that are compatible with the basic requirements in both the trade and macro literatures and allow economists to provide quantitative answers to questions about the short- and long-run impacts of trade policies and shocks on the trade balance, employment, real wages, income distribution, growth, and welfare.
To that end, we welcome submissions across a range of topics that include but are not restricted to theoretical and empirical studies on:
Papers that integrate some aspect of trade in a macro framework will have priority. Proposals should be no more than 300 words in length and should give a clear account of the question(s) to be addressed and the analytical and/or empirical methodology, although they may be accompanied by draft papers.
Please send all proposals to:
The deadline for receipt of proposals is September 12, 2019.